{"id":378,"date":"2026-09-17T13:11:40","date_gmt":"2026-09-17T10:11:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/karekapital.com\/?post_type=kk_study&#038;p=378"},"modified":"2026-09-17T13:24:39","modified_gmt":"2026-09-17T10:24:39","slug":"fon-piyasasinda-ana-soru-urun-mu-guven-mi","status":"publish","type":"kk_study","link":"https:\/\/karekapital.com\/index.php\/calisma\/fon-piyasasinda-ana-soru-urun-mu-guven-mi\/","title":{"rendered":"FON P\u0130YASASINDA ANA SORU:"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"1024\" src=\"https:\/\/karekapital.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Codex-Gorseli-17-Eyl-2026-13_16_42-1024x1024.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-381\" srcset=\"https:\/\/karekapital.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Codex-Gorseli-17-Eyl-2026-13_16_42-1024x1024.png 1024w, https:\/\/karekapital.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Codex-Gorseli-17-Eyl-2026-13_16_42-300x300.png 300w, https:\/\/karekapital.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Codex-Gorseli-17-Eyl-2026-13_16_42-150x150.png 150w, https:\/\/karekapital.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Codex-Gorseli-17-Eyl-2026-13_16_42-768x768.png 768w, https:\/\/karekapital.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/Codex-Gorseli-17-Eyl-2026-13_16_42.png 1254w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u00d6ZET<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Yat\u0131r\u0131m fonlar\u0131nda son d\u00f6nemde \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan sorun, tek tek \u00fcr\u00fcnlerin performans\u0131ndan \u00e7ok piyasan\u0131n hangi ilkelere g\u00f6re b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ve yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 g\u00fcveninin nas\u0131l korunaca\u011f\u0131d\u0131r. Yeni d\u00fczenlemeler, ge\u00e7mi\u015fte biriken risklere kar\u015f\u0131 anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131r bir m\u00fcdahale ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor; ancak ge\u00e7i\u015f takvimi, \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fcl\u00fck ve uygulama birli\u011fi en az d\u00fczenlemenin kendisi kadar \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131yor.<br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Tahvil taraf\u0131nda ise y\u00fcksek faiz seviyeleri kadar ikincil piyasa derinli\u011fi, b\u00fct\u00e7e g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc ve k\u00fcresel uzun vadeli faizler izlenmeli. Bu tablo, hem yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n hem de \u015firketlerin getiriden \u00f6nce likiditeyi, vade uyumunu ve kar\u015f\u0131 taraf kalitesini yeniden merkeze almas\u0131n\u0131 gerektiriyor.<\/p>\n\n\n<p>T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de yat\u0131r\u0131m fonlar\u0131 uzun y\u0131llar boyunca k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck ve orta \u00f6l\u00e7ekli tasarruf sahibinin profesyonel portf\u00f6y y\u00f6netimine eri\u015fmesini sa\u011flayan, g\u00f6rece sade bir ortak yat\u0131r\u0131m arac\u0131 olarak geli\u015fti. Bu yap\u0131n\u0131n temelinde, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n bir araya gelen birikimlerinin belirli kurallar alt\u0131nda y\u00f6netilmesi, riskin farkl\u0131 varl\u0131klara da\u011f\u0131t\u0131lmas\u0131 ve yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n tek ba\u015f\u0131na ula\u015famayaca\u011f\u0131 piyasalara daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetle eri\u015fmesi bulunuyor. Son y\u0131llarda fon say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n, \u00e7e\u015fitlili\u011finin ve y\u00f6netilen b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn h\u0131zl\u0131 artmas\u0131 olumlu bir finansal derinle\u015fme g\u00f6stergesi olarak okunabilir. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131, \u00fcr\u00fcnlerin kurulu\u015f amac\u0131 ile fiil\u00ee kullan\u0131m bi\u00e7imi aras\u0131ndaki mesafeyi de a\u00e7t\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Burada \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan konu, fonun yaln\u0131zca hukuken tan\u0131mlanm\u0131\u015f bir yat\u0131r\u0131m kab\u0131 olmamas\u0131. Fon, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 ile portf\u00f6y y\u00f6neticisi aras\u0131nda g\u00fcvene dayal\u0131 bir ili\u015fki kuruyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 paras\u0131n\u0131 profesyonel bir kuruma b\u0131rak\u0131rken portf\u00f6y\u00fcn kendi \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131 do\u011frultusunda, ilan edilmi\u015f stratejiye uygun ve yeterince \u00e7e\u015fitlendirilmi\u015f bi\u00e7imde y\u00f6netilece\u011fini varsay\u0131yor. Bu nedenle fon piyasas\u0131ndaki sorunlar\u0131 yaln\u0131zca \u201changi \u00fcr\u00fcn ne kadar kazand\u0131rd\u0131?\u201d sorusuna indirgemek eksik kal\u0131yor. As\u0131l \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fc; stratejinin a\u00e7\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131, portf\u00f6y\u00fcn ger\u00e7ek likiditesi, de\u011ferleme kalitesi, yo\u011funla\u015fma riski ve yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n \u00fcr\u00fcnden hangi ko\u015fullarda \u00e7\u0131kabildi\u011fi olmal\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>2020 sonras\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck reel faiz, halka arzlar\u0131n yayg\u0131nla\u015fmas\u0131 ve alternatif getiri aray\u0131\u015f\u0131 fon piyasas\u0131na g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir talep getirdi. Bu d\u00f6nem, sermaye piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n tabana yay\u0131lmas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nemli bir f\u0131rsat sundu. Fakat h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme i\u00e7inde baz\u0131 \u00fcr\u00fcnlerin ortak yat\u0131r\u0131m mant\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan uzakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131, belirli varl\u0131klara veya s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 say\u0131daki pozisyona a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 yo\u011funla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve risklerin yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131ya yeterince a\u00e7\u0131k anlat\u0131lmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki ele\u015ftiriler de g\u00fc\u00e7lendi. Bir fonun ge\u00e7mi\u015f getirisi y\u00fcksek olabilir; ancak bu getiri d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck likidite, zor do\u011frulanan de\u011ferlemeler ya da tek bir ihra\u00e7\u00e7\u0131ya yo\u011funla\u015fma sayesinde olu\u015fuyorsa, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 tablo ba\u015fl\u0131ktaki performanstan \u00e7ok farkl\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p><strong>D\u00dcZENLEMEDE AMA\u00c7, \u00d6L\u00c7\u00dc VE GE\u00c7\u0130\u015e<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Yat\u0131r\u0131m fonlar\u0131na ili\u015fkin rehberde Eyl\u00fcl 2026 ba\u015f\u0131nda yap\u0131lan de\u011fi\u015fiklikler, d\u00fczenleyici kurumlar\u0131n birikmi\u015f riskleri daha yak\u0131ndan izledi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Piyasa a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan olumlu taraf, fon kurulu\u015fundan portf\u00f6y s\u0131n\u0131rlamalar\u0131na ve y\u00f6netim \u015firketlerinin mali yap\u0131s\u0131na kadar uzanan alan\u0131n yeniden ele al\u0131nmas\u0131d\u0131r. Yine de d\u00fczenlemenin kalitesi sadece yaz\u0131lan kuralla \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fclmez. Kural\u0131n hangi sorunu \u00e7\u00f6zmek istedi\u011finin a\u00e7\u0131k olmas\u0131, benzer nitelikteki kurumlara ayn\u0131 bi\u00e7imde uygulanmas\u0131 ve uyum i\u00e7in ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i bir ge\u00e7i\u015f s\u00fcresi tan\u0131nmas\u0131 gerekir.<\/p>\n<p>Piyasada uzun s\u00fcredir kurallara uygun, geni\u015f yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 taban\u0131na hizmet eden ve risk y\u00f6netimine yat\u0131r\u0131m yapan kurumlarla; dar bir \u00e7evrenin ihtiyac\u0131na g\u00f6re kurgulanm\u0131\u015f, yo\u011funla\u015fmas\u0131 y\u00fcksek yap\u0131lar\u0131 ayn\u0131 idari y\u00fck alt\u0131nda de\u011ferlendirmek istenmeyen sonu\u00e7lar do\u011furabilir. Sermaye \u015fartlar\u0131n\u0131n veya fon say\u0131s\u0131na ili\u015fkin s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lendirilmesi yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 korumas\u0131n\u0131 destekleyebilir. Bununla birlikte k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck ama sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan bir portf\u00f6y y\u00f6netim \u015firketinin s\u0131rf \u00f6l\u00e7e\u011fi nedeniyle piyasadan \u00e7ekilmesi, rekabeti azalt\u0131p sekt\u00f6r\u00fc birka\u00e7 b\u00fcy\u00fck oyuncuda toplayabilir. Bu da uzun vadede \u00fcr\u00fcn \u00e7e\u015fitlili\u011fi ve fiyatlama kalitesi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan ba\u015fka bir risk yarat\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Bizim a\u00e7\u0131m\u0131zdan d\u00fczenlemede iki ilke \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Birincisi, tedbirin riskle orant\u0131l\u0131 olmas\u0131. Likit, \u015feffaf ve \u00e7e\u015fitlendirilmi\u015f bir fon ile de\u011ferlemesi g\u00fc\u00e7 varl\u0131klara yo\u011funla\u015fm\u0131\u015f bir fonun ayn\u0131 g\u00f6zetim yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131na tabi tutulmas\u0131 yerine, risk s\u0131n\u0131f\u0131na g\u00f6re kademeli bir \u00e7er\u00e7eve daha sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 sonu\u00e7 verebilir. \u0130kincisi, ge\u00e7i\u015f d\u00f6neminin \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclebilir olmas\u0131. Portf\u00f6ylerin k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede yeniden d\u00fczenlenmesi istenirse, fon y\u00f6neticileri ayn\u0131 anda benzer varl\u0131klarda sat\u0131\u015fa ge\u00e7ebilir. Bu durum, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131y\u0131 korumak amac\u0131yla getirilen bir kural\u0131n piyasa fiyatlar\u0131 ve likidite \u00fczerinden yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131ya ek zarar vermesine yol a\u00e7abilir.<\/p>\n<p>Avrupa\u2019daki kolektif yat\u0131r\u0131m d\u00fczenlemelerinde g\u00f6r\u00fclen \u00e7e\u015fitlendirme, saklama, likidite y\u00f6netimi ve yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 bilgilendirmesi ilkeleri T\u00fcrkiye a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan yararl\u0131 bir referans olu\u015fturuyor. Burada ama\u00e7 yabanc\u0131 bir modeli oldu\u011fu gibi kopyalamak de\u011fil; fonun ortak yat\u0131r\u0131m niteli\u011fini koruyan, \u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fcn ismi ile i\u00e7eri\u011fini birbirine yakla\u015ft\u0131ran ve piyasaya uzun vadeli bir oyun alan\u0131 sunan bir \u00e7er\u00e7eve kurmak olmal\u0131.<\/p>\n<p><strong>YATIRIMCI STAT\u00dcS\u00dc SERVETTEN FAZLASINI ANLATMALI<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Serbest fonlarda tart\u0131\u015fman\u0131n \u00f6nemli bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc \u201cnitelikli yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131\u201d tan\u0131m\u0131nda toplan\u0131yor. Yaln\u0131zca belirli bir finansal varl\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc a\u015fmak, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n karma\u015f\u0131k \u00fcr\u00fcnleri anlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 veya kay\u0131p kapasitesini do\u011fru de\u011ferlendirdi\u011fini tek ba\u015f\u0131na g\u00f6stermiyor. Enflasyonun varl\u0131k fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zla y\u00fckseltti\u011fi bir ortamda, y\u0131llar \u00f6nce y\u00fcksek g\u00f6r\u00fcnen parasal e\u015fikler zamanla ay\u0131rt edici niteli\u011fini kaybedebiliyor. \u00dcstelik servet seviyesi ile finansal okuryazarl\u0131k aras\u0131nda otomatik bir ba\u011f kurmak do\u011fru de\u011fil.<\/p>\n<p>Daha i\u015flevsel bir yakla\u015f\u0131m, varl\u0131k e\u015fi\u011fini deneyim, bilgi ve uygunluk de\u011ferlendirmesiyle birlikte ele almak olabilir. Karma\u015f\u0131k ve likit olmayan \u00fcr\u00fcnlere eri\u015fimde yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n ge\u00e7mi\u015f i\u015flem tecr\u00fcbesi, \u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fcn kay\u0131p senaryolar\u0131n\u0131 anlay\u0131p anlamad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve gerekti\u011finde ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z dan\u0131\u015fmanl\u0131k al\u0131p almad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6nem kazan\u0131yor. Bu, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n tercih \u00f6zg\u00fcrl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ortadan kald\u0131rmak anlam\u0131na gelmez. Tam tersine, yat\u0131r\u0131m karar\u0131n\u0131n yaln\u0131zca son d\u00f6nemin getirisine bak\u0131larak de\u011fil, \u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fcn yap\u0131s\u0131 anla\u015f\u0131lm\u0131\u015f bi\u00e7imde verilmesini destekler.<\/p>\n<p>Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 taraf\u0131nda pratik kontrol listesi olduk\u00e7a sade tutulabilir. Fonun neye yat\u0131r\u0131m yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131, en b\u00fcy\u00fck pozisyonlar\u0131n toplam portf\u00f6y i\u00e7indeki pay\u0131, varl\u0131klar\u0131n ka\u00e7 g\u00fcnde nakde \u00e7evrilebildi\u011fi, fiyatlaman\u0131n hangi y\u00f6ntemle yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131, \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015fta bekleme s\u00fcresi veya kesinti bulunup bulunmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve y\u00f6neticinin stres d\u00f6nemlerindeki performans\u0131 incelenmeli. Getiri tablosu bu sorular\u0131n ard\u0131ndan gelmeli. Y\u00fcksek ge\u00e7mi\u015f getiri, gelecekteki likiditenin veya sermaye korumas\u0131n\u0131n garantisi de\u011fildir.<\/p>\n<p><strong>TAHV\u0130LDE F\u0130YAT VAR, DER\u0130NL\u0130K SINIRLI<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Fon piyasas\u0131ndaki g\u00fcven tart\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 tahvil piyasas\u0131na ge\u00e7ti\u011fimizde farkl\u0131 bir bi\u00e7imde kar\u015f\u0131m\u0131za \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de k\u0131sa vadeli faizler y\u00fcksek seyrini korurken, uzun vadeli devlet tahvillerinde g\u00f6sterge niteli\u011fi ta\u015f\u0131yan fiyatlar olu\u015fuyor. Ancak ekranda g\u00f6r\u00fclen bir fiyat\u0131n ger\u00e7ekten g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir piyasa sinyali say\u0131labilmesi i\u00e7in i\u015flem hacminin ve al\u0131c\u0131-sat\u0131c\u0131 \u00e7e\u015fitlili\u011finin yeterli olmas\u0131 gerekir. S\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 i\u015flemle olu\u015fan uzun vadeli faiz, ekonominin tamam\u0131 i\u00e7in g\u00fcvenilir bir referans \u00fcretmekte zorlan\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Hazine\u2019nin Eyl\u00fcl ihale takviminde iki y\u0131l vadeli sabit kuponlu tahvil, d\u00f6rt y\u0131l vadeli TLREF\u2019e endeksli tahvil ve be\u015f y\u0131l vadeli sabit kuponlu tahvil yer ald\u0131. Bu da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m, bor\u00e7lanma ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131n farkl\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 tercihlerine g\u00f6re y\u00f6netilmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Fakat piyasan\u0131n \u00f6nemli k\u0131sm\u0131 gecelik, haftal\u0131k veya birka\u00e7 ayl\u0131k ara\u00e7larda kal\u0131rken uzun vadeli sabit faizli k\u0131ymetlerde ikincil piyasa derinli\u011fi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131ysa, sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 bir getiri e\u011frisi kurmak g\u00fc\u00e7le\u015fir. Bankalar\u0131n kredi fiyatlamas\u0131, \u015firket tahvilleri ve uzun vadeli yat\u0131r\u0131m projeleri de bu eksiklikten etkilenir.<\/p>\n<p>Getiri e\u011frisinin uzun taraf\u0131nda daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oran g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi her zaman piyasada g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir dezenflasyon g\u00fcveni oldu\u011fu anlam\u0131na gelmez. Bazen d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck i\u015flem hacmi, s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 arz-talep dengesi veya belirli kurumlar\u0131n bilan\u00e7o tercihleri de benzer bir g\u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fc yaratabilir. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla iki, be\u015f ve on y\u0131ll\u0131k faizler aras\u0131ndaki fark kadar, bu seviyelerin ne kadar i\u015flemle olu\u015ftu\u011funa bakmak gerekiyor. Fiyat kadar piyasa derinli\u011fini izlemek, \u00f6zellikle fon de\u011ferlemelerinde ve bilan\u00e7o risk y\u00f6netiminde daha ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i bir \u00e7er\u00e7eve sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n<p><strong>B\u00dcT\u00c7E, PARA POL\u0130T\u0130KASI VE VADE PR\u0130M\u0130<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>TCMB, 10 Eyl\u00fcl 2026 tarihli toplant\u0131s\u0131nda bir hafta vadeli repo faizini y\u00fczde 37\u2019de sabit tuttu. Gecelik bor\u00e7 verme faizi y\u00fczde 40, bor\u00e7lanma faizi y\u00fczde 35,5 seviyesinde kald\u0131. Karar metninde i\u00e7 talebin zay\u0131f seyrine kar\u015f\u0131n enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n enflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc \u00fczerinde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risk olu\u015fturdu\u011fu vurguland\u0131. Bu mesaj, faiz indiriminin zamanlamas\u0131nda yaln\u0131zca ayl\u0131k enflasyon verisinin de\u011fil, enerji maliyetleri ve beklenti kanallar\u0131n\u0131n da izlenece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n<p>Maliye politikas\u0131 bu noktada para politikas\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fck\u00fcn\u00fc do\u011frudan etkiliyor. A\u011fustos 2026 merkezi y\u00f6netim b\u00fct\u00e7esinde gelirler 1 trilyon 654,9 milyar TL, giderler 1 trilyon 642,1 milyar TL olarak a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131 ve ayl\u0131k b\u00fct\u00e7e 12,9 milyar TL fazla verdi. Ayl\u0131k fazla ilk bak\u0131\u015fta olumlu; ancak b\u00fct\u00e7enin kalitesi i\u00e7in gelir kompozisyonu, faiz d\u0131\u015f\u0131 harcamalar ve zorunlu giderlerin seyri de de\u011ferlendirilmeli. Vergi ayarlamalar\u0131n\u0131n gelir \u00fczerindeki etkisi, personel ve cari transferlerin kat\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ile finansman maliyetleri \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde daha g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcr hale gelebilir.<\/p>\n<p>Para politikas\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131 kal\u0131rken b\u00fct\u00e7e taraf\u0131nda kal\u0131c\u0131 bir gev\u015feme olu\u015fursa, uzun vadeli tahvil yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 daha y\u00fcksek vade primi isteyebilir. Bu da politika faizi de\u011fi\u015fmese bile Hazine\u2019nin, bankalar\u0131n ve reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn bor\u00e7lanma maliyetini yukar\u0131da tutar. Bu nedenle 2027 b\u00fct\u00e7esi haz\u0131rlan\u0131rken harcama \u00f6ncelikleri ve finansman program\u0131 yaln\u0131zca kamu maliyesi ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 de\u011fil, enflasyon ve piyasa faizleri a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan da yak\u0131ndan izlenmeli.<\/p>\n<p><strong>K\u00dcRESEL FA\u0130Z\u0130N T\u00dcRK\u0130YE\u2019YE AKTARIMI<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin uzun vadeli finansman maliyeti yaln\u0131zca i\u00e7erideki enflasyon ve b\u00fct\u00e7e g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcyle belirlenmiyor. ABD Hazine tahvillerinde 15 Eyl\u00fcl 2026 itibar\u0131yla on y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri y\u00fczde 5,00, otuz y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri y\u00fczde 5,36 seviyesindeydi. K\u00fcresel risksiz faizlerdeki bu y\u00fckseli\u015f, geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkelerin dolar cinsi tahvil getirilerini tabandan yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yor. \u00dclke risk primi de\u011fi\u015fmese bile, Hazine ve \u015firketlerin yeni Eurobond ihrac\u0131nda kar\u015f\u0131la\u015faca\u011f\u0131 maliyet artabiliyor.<\/p>\n<p>Buradaki aktar\u0131m kanal\u0131 olduk\u00e7a net. ABD uzun vadeli tahvil faizi y\u00fckseldi\u011finde k\u00fcresel yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131, geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclke riskini almak i\u00e7in daha y\u00fcksek ek getiri talep ediyor. Ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemde T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de b\u00fct\u00e7e belirsizli\u011fi veya enflasyon beklentisi g\u00fc\u00e7lenirse iki etki \u00fcst \u00fcste biniyor. Bankalar\u0131n sendikasyonlar\u0131, \u015firketlerin d\u0131\u015f bor\u00e7 yenilemeleri ve kamunun d\u00f6viz cinsi bor\u00e7lanmas\u0131 daha pahal\u0131 hale geliyor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde y\u00fcksek tutarl\u0131 d\u0131\u015f finansman ihtiyac\u0131 bulunan kurumlar i\u00e7in yaln\u0131zca \u201cborcu \u00e7evirebilir miyiz?\u201d sorusu de\u011fil, \u201changi vadede ve hangi nakit ak\u0131\u015f\u0131yla \u00e7evirece\u011fiz?\u201d sorusu \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p><strong>PORTF\u00d6Y VE \u015e\u0130RKETLER \u0130\u00c7\u0130N \u00c7IKARIM<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Bu tablo bize getirinin tek ba\u015f\u0131na yeterli bir karar \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcs\u00fc olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bir kez daha hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor. Fon yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 i\u00e7in \u015feffafl\u0131k, likidite ve yo\u011funla\u015fma; tahvil yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 i\u00e7in i\u015flem derinli\u011fi, vade primi ve ihra\u00e7\u00e7\u0131 kalitesi; \u015firketler i\u00e7inse faiz-kur dengesi ile nakit ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 uyumu birlikte ele al\u0131nmal\u0131. K\u0131sa vadede y\u00fcksek getiri sa\u011flayan bir pozisyon, \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f an\u0131nda al\u0131c\u0131 bulunmad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda veya fonlama yenilendi\u011finde beklenenden \u00e7ok daha pahal\u0131 hale gelebilir.<\/p>\n<p>Portf\u00f6ylerde ayn\u0131 risk fakt\u00f6r\u00fcne ba\u011fl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcnen farkl\u0131 \u00fcr\u00fcnlerin ger\u00e7ekten \u00e7e\u015fitlendirme sa\u011flay\u0131p sa\u011flamad\u0131\u011f\u0131 test edilmeli. Fon ad\u0131 farkl\u0131 olsa bile portf\u00f6ylerin ayn\u0131 hisselere, ayn\u0131 temaya veya benzer likidite ko\u015fullar\u0131na yo\u011funla\u015fmas\u0131 durumunda \u00e7e\u015fitlendirme k\u00e2\u011f\u0131t \u00fczerinde kal\u0131r. \u015eirketlerde ise \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki on iki ila yirmi d\u00f6rt ayl\u0131k bor\u00e7 servisi, kur ve faiz senaryolar\u0131yla birlikte \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131lmal\u0131. Finansman ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131 vade g\u00fcn\u00fcne yakla\u015f\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ele almak yerine, piyasan\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131k oldu\u011fu d\u00f6nemlerde kademeli bi\u00e7imde y\u00f6netmek daha sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 bir alan yarat\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Sonu\u00e7 olarak fon d\u00fczenlemeleri, tahvil piyasas\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131\u011fl\u0131\u011f\u0131, b\u00fct\u00e7e g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc ve k\u00fcresel faizler birbirinden kopuk ba\u015fl\u0131klar de\u011fil. Hepsi sermayenin hangi vadede, hangi maliyetle ve ne kadar g\u00fcven i\u00e7inde hareket etti\u011fini anlat\u0131yor. Piyasan\u0131n ihtiyac\u0131 s\u0131k aral\u0131klarla de\u011fi\u015fen kurallardan \u00e7ok, amac\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k ve uygulamas\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclebilir bir \u00e7er\u00e7eve; yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n ihtiyac\u0131 ise son getiriyi kovalayan refleks yerine \u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fcn yap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 anlayan bir karar s\u00fcreci. Bu iki unsur birlikte geli\u015fti\u011finde finansal derinle\u015fme yaln\u0131zca b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fck art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olmaktan \u00e7\u0131kar, kal\u0131c\u0131 bir g\u00fcven mekanizmas\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr.<\/p>\n<p><em>Kaynaklar<\/em><\/p>\n<p>https:\/\/www.tcmb.gov.tr\/wps\/wcm\/connect\/TR\/TCMB%2BTR\/Main%2BMenu\/Duyurular\/Basin\/2026\/DUY2026-38<\/p>\n<p>https:\/\/ms.hmb.gov.tr\/uploads\/2026\/07\/Web_Kamu_Borc_Yonetimi_Raporu_Temmuz_2026-a088c6aa7badca8e.pdf<\/p>\n<p>https:\/\/www.hmb.gov.tr\/duyuru\/2026-agustos-merkezi-yonetim-butce-gerceklesmeleri<\/p>\n<p>https:\/\/home.treasury.gov\/resource-center\/data-chart-center\/interest-rates\/TextView?field_tdr_date_value=2026&#038;type=daily_treasury_yield_curve<\/p>\n<p>https:\/\/tspb.org.tr\/duzenlemeler\/genel-mektuplar\/<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u00d6ZET Yat\u0131r\u0131m fonlar\u0131nda son d\u00f6nemde \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan sorun, tek tek \u00fcr\u00fcnlerin performans\u0131ndan \u00e7ok piyasan\u0131n hangi ilkelere g\u00f6re b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ve yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 g\u00fcveninin nas\u0131l korunaca\u011f\u0131d\u0131r. Yeni d\u00fczenlemeler, ge\u00e7mi\u015fte biriken risklere kar\u015f\u0131 anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131r bir m\u00fcdahale ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor; ancak ge\u00e7i\u015f takvimi, \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fcl\u00fck ve uygulama birli\u011fi en az d\u00fczenlemenin kendisi kadar \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131yor. Tahvil taraf\u0131nda ise y\u00fcksek faiz seviyeleri kadar [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"template":"","class_list":["post-378","kk_study","type-kk_study","status-publish","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/karekapital.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/kk_study\/378","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/karekapital.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/kk_study"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/karekapital.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/kk_study"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/karekapital.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/kk_study\/378\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":385,"href":"https:\/\/karekapital.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/kk_study\/378\/revisions\/385"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/karekapital.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=378"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}