{"id":250,"date":"2026-08-31T03:21:37","date_gmt":"2026-08-31T00:21:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/karekapital.com\/?post_type=kk_study&#038;p=250"},"modified":"2026-08-31T03:21:37","modified_gmt":"2026-08-31T00:21:37","slug":"secici-kredi-kanalinda-yeni-donem","status":"publish","type":"kk_study","link":"https:\/\/karekapital.com\/index.php\/calisma\/secici-kredi-kanalinda-yeni-donem\/","title":{"rendered":"SE\u00c7\u0130C\u0130 KRED\u0130 KANALINDA YEN\u0130 D\u00d6NEM"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">KARE KAP\u0130TAL F\u0130NANSAL RAPOR<br>31 A\u011fustos 2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u250c\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2510<br>\u2502 \u00d6ZET \u2502<br>\u2502 T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinde para politikas\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015fu korunurken reel sekt\u00f6re \u2502<br>\u2502 y\u00f6nelik se\u00e7ici kredi ve istihdam destekleri geni\u015fliyor. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m k\u0131sa \u2502<br>\u2502 vadede \u00fcretim kapasitesini ve istihdam\u0131 koruyabilir; ancak kaynak tahsisi, \u2502<br>\u2502 b\u00fct\u00e7e maliyeti ve parasal aktar\u0131m bak\u0131m\u0131ndan dikkatli bir \u00e7er\u00e7eve istiyor. \u2502<br>\u2502 Bizim a\u00e7\u0131m\u0131zdan temel mesele, deste\u011fin b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnden \u00e7ok hangi firmalara, \u2502<br>\u2502 hangi performans \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fctleriyle ve ne kadar \u015feffaf bi\u00e7imde y\u00f6neltilece\u011fi. \u2502<br>\u2514\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2518<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">SE\u00c7\u0130C\u0130 KRED\u0130 KANALINDA YEN\u0130 D\u00d6NEM<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin \u00f6n\u00fcndeki tart\u0131\u015fma art\u0131k yaln\u0131zca politika faizinin seviyesi \u00fczerinden y\u00fcr\u00fcm\u00fcyor. Bir tarafta enflasyonu a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131, di\u011fer tarafta y\u00fcksek finansman maliyetleri alt\u0131nda \u00fcretim ve istihdam kayb\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan destek programlar\u0131 var. Son d\u00f6nemde a\u00e7\u0131klanan paketler, ekonomi y\u00f6netiminin bu iki hedefi ayn\u0131 anda ta\u015f\u0131maya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Burada ince \u00e7izgi \u015fu: Kredi kanal\u0131 kontroll\u00fc ve \u00fcretken yat\u0131r\u0131mlara a\u00e7\u0131k tutulurken i\u00e7 talebi yeniden h\u0131zland\u0131racak geni\u015f tabanl\u0131 bir parasal gev\u015femeden ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmak isteniyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Temmuz ay\u0131nda a\u00e7\u0131klanan \u00e7er\u00e7evede Yat\u0131r\u0131m Taahh\u00fctl\u00fc Avans Kredisi program\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc 750 milyar TL\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131ld\u0131; imalat sanayisine y\u00f6nelik 250 milyar TL\u2019lik ayr\u0131 kredi paketiyle toplam 1 trilyon TL tutar\u0131nda uygun ko\u015fullu finansman imk\u00e2n\u0131 duyuruldu. Bu tutarlar\u0131n tamam\u0131n\u0131n ayn\u0131 anda piyasaya girece\u011fi anlam\u0131na gelmedi\u011fini not etmek \u00f6nemli. Program\u0131n etkisi kulland\u0131r\u0131m takvimine, kredi ko\u015fullar\u0131na, yat\u0131r\u0131m projelerinin niteli\u011fine ve bankalar\u0131n risk i\u015ftah\u0131na g\u00f6re zamana yay\u0131lacak.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Program\u0131n yat\u0131r\u0131m taraf\u0131 do\u011fru kurguland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda olumlu bir arz etkisi yaratabilir. Yeni \u00fcretim hatt\u0131, teknoloji yenilemesi, enerji verimlili\u011fi, ithal girdinin yurt i\u00e7inde \u00fcretilmesi ve ihracat kapasitesinin art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 gibi alanlar ekonominin orta vadeli \u00fcretim g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc destekler. B\u00f6yle bir kaynak tahsisi, yaln\u0131zca bug\u00fcnk\u00fc finansman s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hafifletmez; verimlilik ve d\u00f6viz kazand\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 kapasite \u00fczerinden enflasyonla m\u00fccadeleye de katk\u0131 sunabilir. Fakat kredi i\u015fletme sermayesi a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrekli kapatan, verimsiz firmalar\u0131n bilan\u00e7osunu ertelemeli bi\u00e7imde ta\u015f\u0131yan veya k\u0131sa vadeli talebi b\u00fcy\u00fcten bir yap\u0131ya d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrse ayn\u0131 olumlu sonu\u00e7tan s\u00f6z etmek zorla\u015f\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u0130ST\u0130HDAMI KORUMA DESTE\u011e\u0130N\u0130N \u0130K\u0130 Y\u00dcZ\u00dc<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">KOSGEB\u2019in g\u00fcncel program\u0131, tekstil, giyim, deri ve mobilya gibi emek yo\u011fun imalat kollar\u0131nda korunan her 30 prim g\u00fcn\u00fc i\u00e7in ayl\u0131k 3.500 TL geri \u00f6demesiz destek \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. KOB\u0130\u2019lerde destek \u00fcst s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131, 249 \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan ve 360 prim g\u00fcn hesab\u0131yla 10 milyon 458 bin TL. Program ayr\u0131ca performans deste\u011finin d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda kalan imalat sekt\u00f6rleri i\u00e7in i\u015fletme ba\u015f\u0131na 50 milyon TL\u2019ye kadar, ilk alt\u0131 ay\u0131 anapara \u00f6demesiz ve toplam vadesi 36 aya kadar uzanan kredi imk\u00e2n\u0131 ile 10 puanl\u0131k finansman deste\u011fi i\u00e7eriyor. KOSGEB\u2019in yay\u0131mlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ko\u015fullar, istihdam\u0131n 2025 Kas\u0131m-Aral\u0131k d\u00f6nemindeki ortalama prim g\u00fcn say\u0131s\u0131na g\u00f6re korunmas\u0131n\u0131 esas al\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Bu t\u00fcr desteklerin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc taraf\u0131, i\u015ften \u00e7\u0131karma karar\u0131n\u0131 firmalar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bir miktar daha pahal\u0131 hale getirmesi. Sipari\u015flerin zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve kredi maliyetinin y\u00fckseldi\u011fi bir d\u00f6nemde ge\u00e7ici nakit deste\u011fi, \u00fcretim ekibinin da\u011f\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nleyebilir. Nitelikli \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan\u0131 kaybeden bir i\u015fletmenin talep toparland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ayn\u0131 kapasiteyi yeniden kurmas\u0131 hem zaman hem maliyet a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan kolay de\u011fil. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla istihdam\u0131 korumak, sosyal politika kadar sanayi kapasitesini muhafaza eden bir ara\u00e7 olarak da okunabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u00d6te yandan her istihdam deste\u011fi ayn\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde verimli sonu\u00e7 vermiyor. Destek, zaten \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan\u0131n\u0131 koruyacak firmalara da \u00f6dendi\u011finde kamu kayna\u011f\u0131n\u0131n ilave etkisi zay\u0131fl\u0131yor. Ge\u00e7ici talep kayb\u0131 ya\u015fayan sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 i\u015fletmeyle kal\u0131c\u0131 rekabet sorunu bulunan i\u015fletmeyi ay\u0131rmayan bir model, verimsiz kapasitenin uzun s\u00fcre ta\u015f\u0131nmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilir. Burada \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan konu, yaln\u0131zca \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n korunmas\u0131 de\u011fil; sat\u0131\u015f, ihracat, verimlilik ve \u00f6zkaynak katk\u0131s\u0131 gibi g\u00f6stergelerin de izlenmesi. Program sona erdikten sonra istihdam\u0131n ne \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc kamuoyuyla payla\u015f\u0131l\u0131rsa, benzer desteklerin tasar\u0131m\u0131 i\u00e7in de\u011ferli bir veri seti olu\u015fur.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">PARA POL\u0130T\u0130KASIYLA UYUM SINAVI<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">TCMB, 30 Temmuz tarihli toplant\u0131 \u00f6zetinde politika faizini y\u00fczde 37\u2019de, gecelik bor\u00e7 verme faizini y\u00fczde 40\u2019ta ve gecelik bor\u00e7lanma faizini y\u00fczde 35,5\u2019te tuttu\u011funu a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Banka ayn\u0131 metinde kararlar\u0131n toplant\u0131 bazl\u0131, veri odakl\u0131 ve ihtiyatl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde al\u0131naca\u011f\u0131n\u0131; kredi ve mevduat piyasalar\u0131nda beklenmeyen geli\u015fmeler g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrse makroihtiyati ara\u00e7lar\u0131n devreye sokulaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7eve, yak\u0131n d\u00f6nemdeki faiz karar\u0131n\u0131 tek bir ayl\u0131k enflasyon verisine ba\u011flaman\u0131n sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Se\u00e7ici kredilerin para politikas\u0131yla \u00e7eli\u015fip \u00e7eli\u015fmedi\u011fi, kredinin hacmi kadar niteli\u011fine ba\u011fl\u0131. Uzun vadeli yat\u0131r\u0131m kredisi ile k\u0131sa vadeli t\u00fcketim finansman\u0131 ayn\u0131 makroekonomik etkiyi \u00fcretmiyor. \u00dcretim kapasitesini geni\u015fleten yat\u0131r\u0131m ilk a\u015famada i\u00e7 talep yarat\u0131rken, devreye girdi\u011finde arz\u0131 ve verimlili\u011fi art\u0131rabilir. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizli kayna\u011f\u0131n d\u00f6vize, gayrimenkule, stok biriktirmeye veya ili\u015fkili \u015firketlerin i\u015fletme sermayesine y\u00f6nelmesi, parasal s\u0131k\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 delerek enflasyon ve kur beklentilerini bozabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Bu nedenle programlar\u0131n miktar s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131 kadar fiyatlama y\u00f6ntemi de \u00f6nemli. Piyasa faizinin \u00e7ok alt\u0131nda sabitlenen kredi oran\u0131, yararlan\u0131c\u0131 firma i\u00e7in ciddi bir mali avantaj; kamu kesimi veya merkez bankas\u0131 bilan\u00e7osu a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan ise bir t\u00fcr ko\u015fullu maliyet anlam\u0131na gelir. Maliyet g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcr bi\u00e7imde b\u00fct\u00e7elenmezse kamuoyunun program\u0131n ger\u00e7ek y\u00fck\u00fcn\u00fc izlemesi zorla\u015f\u0131r. Kredi tahsis kriterleri, kulland\u0131r\u0131m tutarlar\u0131, sekt\u00f6r da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131, geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f performans\u0131 ve yarat\u0131lan ilave istihdam d\u00fczenli raporlan\u0131rsa destek ile ayr\u0131cal\u0131k aras\u0131ndaki s\u0131n\u0131r daha net \u00e7izilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Kamu bankalar\u0131n\u0131n finansman ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131 gev\u015fetmesi veya sorunlu kredileri yeniden yap\u0131land\u0131rmas\u0131 da benzer bir de\u011ferlendirme istiyor. Ge\u00e7ici nakit ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 sorunu ya\u015fayan, sipari\u015f ve \u00fcretim kapasitesi bulunan bir \u015firketin vadesini uzatmak ekonomik de\u011fer yaratabilir. Ancak geri \u00f6deme kapasitesi kal\u0131c\u0131 bi\u00e7imde bozulmu\u015f firmalar\u0131n s\u00fcrekli \u00e7evrilmesi, zarar\u0131 ortadan kald\u0131rmaz; yaln\u0131zca ileri bir tarihe ta\u015f\u0131r. Sonunda maliyet banka bilan\u00e7osu, sermaye ihtiyac\u0131 veya b\u00fct\u00e7e \u00fczerinden topluma d\u00f6nebilir. Yeniden yap\u0131land\u0131rman\u0131n ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z kredi analizi, ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i nakit ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve ortaklar\u0131n sermaye katk\u0131s\u0131yla birlikte y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fclmesi bu riski azalt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">REZERVLER RAHATLATIYOR, FAKAT TEK BA\u015eINA YETERL\u0130 DE\u011e\u0130L<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">TCMB\u2019nin 21 A\u011fustos 2026 tarihli resm\u00ee verisine g\u00f6re rezerv varl\u0131klar\u0131 bir haftada y\u00fczde 2,7 artarak 188,45 milyar ABD dolar\u0131na ula\u015ft\u0131. Bunun 66,46 milyar dolar\u0131 d\u00f6viz varl\u0131klar\u0131ndan, 114,22 milyar dolar\u0131 alt\u0131ndan, 7,77 milyar dolar\u0131 ise IMF rezerv pozisyonu ve SDR toplam\u0131ndan olu\u015fuyor. Ayn\u0131 tarihte kamu sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn k\u0131sa vadeli d\u00f6viz y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fckleri 120,95 milyar dolar d\u00fczeyinde. Merkez Bankas\u0131n\u0131n yabanc\u0131 para swaplar\u0131ndan kaynaklanan net y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc 16,45 milyar dolar, alt\u0131n swaplar\u0131ndan do\u011fan net alaca\u011f\u0131 ise 5,46 milyar dolar olarak raporland\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Rezerv birikimi kur oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 tamponu g\u00fc\u00e7lendirir ve d\u0131\u015f finansman alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 destekler. Yine de br\u00fct rezerv rakam\u0131n\u0131 tek ba\u015f\u0131na okumak yeterli de\u011fil. D\u00f6viz y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fcklerinin vadesi, swap pozisyonlar\u0131, alt\u0131n\u0131n toplam i\u00e7indeki pay\u0131 ve rezerv art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n hangi kanaldan geldi\u011fi birlikte de\u011ferlendirilmeli. K\u0131sa vadeli portf\u00f6y giri\u015fleriyle olu\u015fan birikim ile kal\u0131c\u0131 cari fazla veya do\u011frudan yat\u0131r\u0131m kaynakl\u0131 birikim ayn\u0131 dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 sa\u011flamaz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Bizim a\u00e7\u0131m\u0131zdan rezervlerin seviyesi kadar, rezerv kazan\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n kur \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131 ve sterilizasyon maliyeti de takip edilmeli. Sermaye giri\u015fi h\u0131zland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda TCMB piyasadan d\u00f6viz alarak rezerv toplarken olu\u015fan TL likiditesini geri \u00e7ekmek durumunda kalabilir. Ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemde kamu destekli kredi hacmi de b\u00fcy\u00fcrse likidite y\u00f6netimi daha karma\u015f\u0131k hale gelir. Para politikas\u0131n\u0131n bir kanaldan s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131p di\u011fer kanaldan geni\u015flemesi, aktar\u0131m mekanizmas\u0131n\u0131n okunmas\u0131n\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131r ve beklentiler \u00fczerinde gereksiz belirsizlik yarat\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">K\u00dcRESEL FA\u0130ZLER T\u00dcRK\u0130YE\u2019N\u0130N HAREKET ALANINI SINIRLIYOR<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">K\u00fcresel tarafta da h\u0131zl\u0131 bir rahatlama sinyali yok. ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131n\u0131n 28 A\u011fustos tarihli de\u011ferlendirmesinde y\u00fczde 2\u2019lik PCE enflasyon hedefinin \u201csabit\u201d oldu\u011fu \u00f6zellikle vurguland\u0131. Y\u0131ll\u0131k PCE enflasyonu y\u00fczde 3,7, son alt\u0131 ayl\u0131k y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f de\u011fi\u015fim y\u00fczde 4,1 olarak a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131; i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 ise y\u00fczde 4,1 d\u00fczeyinde. Mesaj\u0131n \u00f6z\u00fc, faiz konusunda \u00f6nceden verilmi\u015f kesin bir karar yerine gelen veriye g\u00f6re hareket edilece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde. Bu nedenle k\u00fcresel faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n ya da indiriminin \u015fimdiden kesinle\u015fti\u011fini varsaymak do\u011fru olmaz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">ABD\u2019de enflasyonun hedefin \u00fczerinde kalmas\u0131, geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkeler i\u00e7in dolar fonlama maliyetinin y\u00fcksek seyretmesine neden olabilir. T\u00fcrkiye a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bunun iki sonucu var. Birincisi, TL varl\u0131klara gelecek yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n talep etti\u011fi reel getiri kolayca d\u00fc\u015fmeyebilir. \u0130kincisi, d\u0131\u015f bor\u00e7 yenileme maliyetleri y\u00fcksek kald\u0131\u011f\u0131nda \u015firketlerin i\u00e7eride uygun ko\u015fullu finansman talebi artar. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla sanayiyi destekleme ihtiyac\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lenirken, para politikas\u0131n\u0131 erken gev\u015fetmenin kur ve enflasyon maliyeti de b\u00fcy\u00fcyebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">GEL\u0130R DA\u011eILIMI VE POL\u0130T\u0130KA TERC\u0130H\u0130N\u0130N SINIRI<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Kredi ve istihdam programlar\u0131 \u015firket bilan\u00e7olar\u0131n\u0131 rahatlat\u0131rken hanehalk\u0131n\u0131n sat\u0131n alma g\u00fcc\u00fc ayn\u0131 h\u0131zda toparlanm\u0131yorsa ekonomi politikas\u0131n\u0131n toplumsal dengesi tart\u0131\u015fmaya a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131r. \u00dcreticiyi korumak \u00f6nemlidir; ancak program\u0131n nihai ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131 \u00fccretli kesime ne kadar kal\u0131c\u0131 istihdam ve reel gelir yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131yla \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fclmeli. Kamu kayna\u011f\u0131yla desteklenen firman\u0131n yaln\u0131zca \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fil \u00fccret kalitesini, kay\u0131tl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve verimlili\u011fi de geli\u015ftirmesi beklenebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Burada se\u00e7im takvimine ili\u015fkin yorumlardan ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z olarak bak\u0131lmas\u0131 gereken \u015fey, politikan\u0131n s\u00fcreklili\u011fi. Kredi ko\u015fullar\u0131 siyasi veya konjonkt\u00fcrel beklentilere g\u00f6re s\u0131k s\u0131k de\u011fi\u015firse firmalar yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 verimlilik hesab\u0131yla de\u011fil, bir sonraki destek paketini tahmin ederek planlamaya ba\u015flar. Bu davran\u0131\u015f kaynak da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 bozar. Uzun vadeli yat\u0131r\u0131m kararlar\u0131; \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclebilir hukuk, \u015feffaf d\u00fczenleme, tutarl\u0131 vergi politikas\u0131 ve fiyat istikrar\u0131 ile desteklendi\u011finde \u00e7ok daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc sonu\u00e7 verir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">SONU\u00c7: DESTEK VAR, BA\u015eARI \u00d6L\u00c7\u00dcT\u00dc \u015eEFFAFLIK<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin mevcut ko\u015fullar\u0131nda reel sekt\u00f6re hi\u00e7 destek vermemek ile geni\u015f tabanl\u0131 ucuz krediye d\u00f6nmek aras\u0131nda geni\u015f bir politika alan\u0131 bulunuyor. Se\u00e7ici, vadeli ve performansa ba\u011fl\u0131 finansman bu alan\u0131n makul ara\u00e7lar\u0131ndan biri. \u00d6zellikle ihracat, verimlilik, teknoloji ve enerji tasarrufu \u00fcreten yat\u0131r\u0131mlar i\u00e7in kredi kanal\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k tutulabilir. \u0130stihdam deste\u011fi de ge\u00e7ici \u015fok d\u00f6nemlerinde \u00fcretim kapasitesinin kaybolmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nleyebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As\u0131l risk, programlar\u0131n hedefinden koparak bilan\u00e7o kurtarma mekanizmas\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fmesi. Bunun \u00f6n\u00fcne ge\u00e7mek i\u00e7in kredi kullanan \u015firketlerin isimlerini a\u00e7\u0131klamak her durumda zorunlu olmayabilir; fakat sekt\u00f6r, tutar, vade, faiz s\u00fcbvansiyonu, yat\u0131r\u0131m ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi, ilave \u00fcretim, ihracat ve istihdam sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 kamuoyuna d\u00fczenli bi\u00e7imde sunulabilir. Ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z denetim ve geri alma h\u00fck\u00fcmleri de \u00e7er\u00e7evenin par\u00e7as\u0131 olmal\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Bu tablo bize, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde faiz karar\u0131ndan daha geni\u015f bir g\u00f6sterge setine bakmam\u0131z gerekti\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Destekli kredilerin ayl\u0131k kulland\u0131r\u0131m h\u0131z\u0131, kamu bankalar\u0131n\u0131n kredi b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi, yeniden yap\u0131land\u0131r\u0131lan alacaklar\u0131n performans\u0131, TCMB\u2019nin likidite sterilizasyonu ve rezervlerin bile\u015fimi birlikte izlenmeli. Bu g\u00f6stergeler kontroll\u00fc kal\u0131rsa se\u00e7ici destekler dezenflasyon program\u0131n\u0131 bozmadan sanayide ge\u00e7i\u015f s\u00fcrecini kolayla\u015ft\u0131rabilir. H\u0131zl\u0131 ve \u015feffafl\u0131ktan uzak bir geni\u015fleme ise bug\u00fcn ertelenen maliyetin daha y\u00fcksek enflasyon, daha ge\u00e7 faiz indirimi veya kamu bilan\u00e7osunda zarar olarak geri d\u00f6nmesi riskini ta\u015f\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Kaynaklar<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">KOSGEB \u2013 \u0130stihdam\u0131 Koruma Destek Program\u0131:<br><a href=\"https:\/\/www.kosgeb.gov.tr\/site\/tr\/genel\/destekdetay\/9224\/istihdami-koruma-destek-programi\">https:\/\/www.kosgeb.gov.tr\/site\/tr\/genel\/destekdetay\/9224\/istihdami-koruma-destek-programi<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Sanayi ve Teknoloji Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u2013 \u0130malat Sanayisine Finansman Deste\u011fi:<br><a href=\"https:\/\/sanayi.gov.tr\/medya\/haber\/imalat-sanayisine-dev-finansman-destegi\">https:\/\/sanayi.gov.tr\/medya\/haber\/imalat-sanayisine-dev-finansman-destegi<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">TCMB \u2013 Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu Toplant\u0131 \u00d6zeti, 30 Temmuz 2026:<br><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tcmb.gov.tr\/wps\/wcm\/connect\/TR\/TCMB%2BTR\/Main%2BMenu\/Duyurular\/Basin\/2026\/DUY2026-32\">https:\/\/www.tcmb.gov.tr\/wps\/wcm\/connect\/TR\/TCMB%2BTR\/Main%2BMenu\/Duyurular\/Basin\/2026\/DUY2026-32<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">TCMB \u2013 Uluslararas\u0131 Rezervler ve D\u00f6viz Likiditesi, 21 A\u011fustos 2026:<br><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tcmb.gov.tr\/wps\/wcm\/connect\/8192e55e-5e96-491d-aaad-8d5f893e0f1e\/URDL_Geli%C5%9Fmeleri.pdf?CACHEID=ROOTWORKSPACE-8192e55e-5e96-491d-aaad-8d5f893e0f1e-q12-.JT&amp;MOD=AJPERES\">https:\/\/www.tcmb.gov.tr\/wps\/wcm\/connect\/8192e55e-5e96-491d-aaad-8d5f893e0f1e\/URDL_Geli%C5%9Fmeleri.pdf?CACHEID=ROOTWORKSPACE-8192e55e-5e96-491d-aaad-8d5f893e0f1e-q12-.JT&amp;MOD=AJPERES<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Federal Reserve \u2013 Jackson Hole Konu\u015fmas\u0131, 28 A\u011fustos 2026:<br><a href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/newsevents\/speech\/warsh20260828a.htm\">https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/newsevents\/speech\/warsh20260828a.htm<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>KARE KAP\u0130TAL F\u0130NANSAL RAPOR31 A\u011fustos 2026 \u250c\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2500\u2510\u2502 \u00d6ZET \u2502\u2502 T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinde para politikas\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015fu korunurken reel sekt\u00f6re \u2502\u2502 y\u00f6nelik se\u00e7ici kredi ve istihdam destekleri geni\u015fliyor. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m k\u0131sa \u2502\u2502 vadede \u00fcretim kapasitesini ve istihdam\u0131 koruyabilir; ancak kaynak tahsisi, \u2502\u2502 b\u00fct\u00e7e maliyeti ve parasal aktar\u0131m bak\u0131m\u0131ndan dikkatli bir \u00e7er\u00e7eve istiyor. \u2502\u2502 Bizim a\u00e7\u0131m\u0131zdan temel mesele, [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"template":"","class_list":["post-250","kk_study","type-kk_study","status-publish","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/karekapital.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/kk_study\/250","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/karekapital.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/kk_study"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/karekapital.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/kk_study"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/karekapital.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/kk_study\/250\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":251,"href":"https:\/\/karekapital.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/kk_study\/250\/revisions\/251"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/karekapital.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=250"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}