Gelir ve Servet Etkisi<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Nominal fiyat dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ile al\u0131m g\u00fcc\u00fcndeki a\u015f\u0131nmay\u0131 ayn\u0131 tabloda okumak<\/p>\n\n\n\n
KARE KAP\u0130TAL F\u0130NANSAL RAPOR<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u00d6ZET<\/p>\n\n\n\n
T\u00fcrkiye’de konut fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 yaln\u0131zca faiz \u00fczerinden a\u00e7\u0131klamak, piyasan\u0131n bug\u00fcnk\u00fc yap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 eksik b\u0131rak\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
2021-2022 d\u00f6nemindeki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc y\u00fckseli\u015f; ucuz kredinin yan\u0131nda h\u0131zl\u0131 kredi geni\u015flemesi, y\u00fcksek enflasyon,<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u00fccret art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ve tasarruflar\u0131n reel varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelmesiyle olu\u015fmu\u015ftu. Bug\u00fcn ayn\u0131 bile\u015fenler bir arada de\u011fil.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Temmuz 2026 verilerinde konut fiyatlar\u0131 y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fczde 25 artarken reel olarak y\u00fczde 5,1 geriledi; sat\u0131\u015f adedi<\/p>\n\n\n\n
de ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 ay\u0131na g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 17 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k ipotekli sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n toplam i\u00e7indeki pay\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k<\/p>\n\n\n\n
y\u00fczde 19’a \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, fiyatlar\u0131n TL baz\u0131nda y\u00fckselmeye devam edebilece\u011fini ancak enflasyon,<\/p>\n\n\n\n
d\u00f6viz ve alt\u0131n kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda ayn\u0131 sonucu vermeyebilece\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde piyasan\u0131n y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc<\/p>\n\n\n\n
faiz ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan \u00e7ok pe\u015finat g\u00fcc\u00fc, hane geliri, mevcut servetin hareketi ve yeni arz\u0131n finansman\u0131<\/p>\n\n\n\n
belirleyecek.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
2021 haf\u0131zas\u0131 bug\u00fcn\u00fc yan\u0131ltmas\u0131n<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Konut piyasas\u0131nda faiz indirimi konu\u015fuldu\u011funda ilk akla gelen d\u00f6nem 2021 oluyor. Oysa o y\u0131llardaki hareket<\/p>\n\n\n\n
yaln\u0131zca kredi faizinin d\u00fc\u015fmesiyle a\u00e7\u0131klanamaz. Kredi hacmi h\u0131zla geni\u015flerken enflasyon y\u00fckseldi, nominal<\/p>\n\n\n\n
gelirler ve asgari \u00fccret k\u0131sa aral\u0131klarla g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc art\u0131\u015flar g\u00f6rd\u00fc, tasarruf sahibi de paras\u0131n\u0131 korumak i\u00e7in konut,<\/p>\n\n\n\n
otomobil, d\u00f6viz ve alt\u0131n aras\u0131nda daha h\u0131zl\u0131 hareket etmeye ba\u015flad\u0131. Sabit taksitli bir kredinin ayl\u0131k \u00f6demesi,<\/p>\n\n\n\n
gelirler nominal olarak b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fck\u00e7e hane b\u00fct\u00e7esinde daha k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir yer tutuyordu. Talep bu nedenle hem<\/p>\n\n\n\n
krediyle hem de enflasyonun yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7ekme davran\u0131\u015f\u0131yla beslendi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Bug\u00fcnk\u00fc ko\u015fullarda politika yap\u0131c\u0131n\u0131n ayn\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fckte, ayn\u0131 geni\u015flikte ve ayn\u0131 s\u00fcreyle kredi art\u0131\u015f\u0131na izin<\/p>\n\n\n\n
vermesi daha zor g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. 2021-2022 deneyiminin enflasyon ve fiyatlama davran\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00fczerindeki maliyeti h\u00e2l\u00e2<\/p>\n\n\n\n
hat\u0131rlan\u0131yor. Kredi kanal\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131lsa bile bunun ilk evini alacaklara, belirli gelir gruplar\u0131na veya kamu bankalar\u0131<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u00fczerinden s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kontenjanlara y\u00f6nelmesi daha makul bir senaryo. B\u00f6yle bir program baz\u0131 al\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7ar;<\/p>\n\n\n\n
fakat \u00fclke genelindeki fiyatlar\u0131 tek ba\u015f\u0131na yeni bir s\u0131\u00e7ramaya ta\u015f\u0131yacak kadar geni\u015f olmayabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Ge\u00e7mi\u015fteki iki \u00f6rnek de ayn\u0131 noktay\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. 2017’de KGF’nin verebilece\u011fi kefalet tutar\u0131 250 milyar TL’ye<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u00e7\u0131kar\u0131ld\u0131 ve ekonomiye g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir kredi deste\u011fi verildi. 2018’deki kur \u015fokunun ard\u0131ndan politika faizi y\u00fczde<\/p>\n\n\n\n
17,75’ten y\u00fczde 24’e y\u00fckselince finansman ko\u015fullar\u0131 sert bi\u00e7imde darald\u0131. Haziran 2020’de ise kamu<\/p>\n\n\n\n
bankalar\u0131n\u0131n konut finansman\u0131 kampanyas\u0131na 133 bin ba\u015fvuru geldi; 101 bini a\u015fk\u0131n ki\u015fiye yakla\u015f\u0131k 25 milyar TL<\/p>\n\n\n\n
tahsis edildi. Her d\u00f6nemde faiz kadar krediye eri\u015fimin kapsam\u0131, hane gelirinin seyri ve ekonomideki g\u00fcven<\/p>\n\n\n\n
duygusu etkili oldu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Faiz tek ba\u015f\u0131na talep yaratm\u0131yor<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Bir hanenin konut alabilmesi i\u00e7in d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizden \u00f6nce pe\u015finat\u0131, d\u00fczenli geliri ve bankan\u0131n kabul edece\u011fi \u00f6deme<\/p>\n\n\n\n
kapasitesi bulunmal\u0131. Kredi faizi s\u0131f\u0131ra yakla\u015fsa bile bu \u00fc\u00e7 unsur yoksa talep k\u00e2\u011f\u0131t \u00fczerinde kal\u0131yor. T\u00fcrkiye’de<\/p>\n\n\n\n
konut kredilerinin milli gelire oran\u0131 benzer \u00fclkelere k\u0131yasla d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck. Bu nedenle ABD’deki gibi ipotekli<\/p>\n\n\n\n
finansman\u0131n b\u00fct\u00fcn fiyatlama mekanizmas\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fckledi\u011fi bir piyasa yap\u0131s\u0131ndan s\u00f6z etmiyoruz. Sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n \u00f6nemli<\/p>\n\n\n\n
b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc \u00f6zkaynak, aile i\u00e7i birikim, mevcut konutun sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 veya ba\u015fka bir varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n bozulmas\u0131yla tamamlan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Temmuz 2026’da 123 bin 603 konut sat\u0131ld\u0131. Toplam sat\u0131\u015f ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 ay\u0131na g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 17 gerilerken<\/p>\n\n\n\n
ipotekli sat\u0131\u015f 23 bin 888’e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bu rakam toplam\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 19,3’\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k geliyor. \u0130potekli sat\u0131\u015ftaki<\/p>\n\n\n\n
y\u0131ll\u0131k art\u0131\u015f, kredi kanal\u0131nda k\u0131smi bir canlanmaya i\u015faret ediyor; buna ra\u011fmen toplam hacimdeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, kredinin<\/p>\n\n\n\n
piyasay\u0131 tek ba\u015f\u0131na yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yamad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. \u0130lk el sat\u0131\u015f\u0131n 42 bin 529, ikinci el sat\u0131\u015f\u0131n 81 bin 74 olmas\u0131<\/p>\n\n\n\n
26 A\u011fustos 2026 | Gayrimenkul Piyasas\u0131 Sayfa 1KARE KAP\u0130TAL F\u0130NANSAL RAPOR<\/p>\n\n\n\n
da a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131n mevcut stokta kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 anlat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
2025 y\u0131l\u0131nda sat\u0131\u015flar 1 milyon 688 bin 910 adetle rekor seviyeye ula\u015ft\u0131. Ancak ipotekli sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n pay\u0131 y\u00fczde 14<\/p>\n\n\n\n
civar\u0131nda kald\u0131. Bu ayr\u0131m \u00f6nemli: rekor adet, b\u00fct\u00fcn al\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n yeni krediyle piyasaya girdi\u011fi anlam\u0131na gelmiyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Birikmi\u015f mevduat, alt\u0131n, para piyasas\u0131 fonlar\u0131, \u00f6nceki konutun sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve aile deste\u011fi sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n arkas\u0131ndaki as\u0131l<\/p>\n\n\n\n
kaynaklardan biri olmu\u015f olabilir. Krediyle yarat\u0131lan yeni para ile sistemin i\u00e7indeki mevcut paran\u0131n el<\/p>\n\n\n\n
de\u011fi\u015ftirmesi ayn\u0131 fiyat etkisini \u00fcretmiyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Maliyet fiyat\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131maktan \u00e7ok arz\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u0130n\u015faat maliyetindeki y\u00fckseli\u015f \u00e7o\u011fu zaman sat\u0131\u015f fiyat\u0131 i\u00e7in otomatik bir taban gibi anlat\u0131l\u0131yor. Piyasa prati\u011fi<\/p>\n\n\n\n
bundan daha karma\u015f\u0131k. Girdi maliyeti ne kadar y\u00fckselirse y\u00fckselsin, al\u0131c\u0131n\u0131n geliri ve \u00f6deme g\u00fcc\u00fc o fiyat\u0131<\/p>\n\n\n\n
kar\u015f\u0131lam\u0131yorsa i\u015flem ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmiyor. Geli\u015ftirici projeyi erteleyebilir, daha k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck metrekareye d\u00f6nebilir, arsa<\/p>\n\n\n\n
sahibinin pay\u0131n\u0131 yeniden konu\u015fabilir veya k\u00e2r\u0131ndan vazge\u00e7ebilir; fakat maliyeti oldu\u011fu gibi nihai fiyata<\/p>\n\n\n\n
aktaramad\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemler de ya\u015fan\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Haziran 2026 itibar\u0131yla T\u00dc\u0130K’in in\u015faat maliyet endeksi y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fczde 28,66 y\u00fckseldi. Ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemin konut fiyat<\/p>\n\n\n\n
endeksinde y\u0131ll\u0131k art\u0131\u015f y\u00fczde 25 civar\u0131nda. \u0130ki seri bire bir kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lmasa da aradaki yak\u0131nl\u0131k, maliyetin fiyat\u0131<\/p>\n\n\n\n
s\u0131n\u0131rs\u0131z bi\u00e7imde yukar\u0131 itemedi\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Y\u00fcksek maliyetin daha belirgin etkisi yeni proje i\u015ftah\u0131nda ve<\/p>\n\n\n\n
kentsel d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm h\u0131z\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. Talep zay\u0131fken maliyet y\u00fckselirse arz ertelenir; bu da bug\u00fcn de\u011filse bile<\/p>\n\n\n\n
ilerleyen y\u0131llarda nitelikli konut a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fctebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Tasarruf finansman \u015firketleri ve alternatif \u00f6deme modelleri bu bo\u015flukta daha g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcr hale geliyor. Yine de<\/p>\n\n\n\n
sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn toplam konut piyasas\u0131n\u0131 tek ba\u015f\u0131na y\u00f6nlendirecek \u00f6l\u00e7ekte oldu\u011funu s\u00f6ylemek i\u00e7in erken. Bu modeller<\/p>\n\n\n\n
belirli al\u0131c\u0131 gruplar\u0131na eri\u015fim sa\u011fl\u0131yor, fakat \u00fclke genelindeki pe\u015finat ve gelir sorununu ortadan kald\u0131rm\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Alt\u0131n, pe\u015finat\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fcnmeyen finans\u00f6r\u00fc<\/p>\n\n\n\n
T\u00fcrkiye’de konut al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 anlamak i\u00e7in banka kredilerinin yan\u0131nda mevcut servetin nas\u0131l hareket etti\u011fine<\/p>\n\n\n\n
bakmak gerekiyor. Alt\u0131n bu noktada \u00f6zel bir yere sahip. Bir\u00e7ok hane i\u00e7in alt\u0131n, sat\u0131n alma bedelinin tamam\u0131<\/p>\n\n\n\n
de\u011filse bile pe\u015finat\u0131 tamamlayan giri\u015f bileti. Alt\u0131n fiyat\u0131ndaki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc art\u0131\u015f, kredi kullanmadan ya da daha k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck<\/p>\n\n\n\n
krediyle konuta ge\u00e7ebilecek bir al\u0131c\u0131 kitlesi yaratabiliyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
TCMB’nin il baz\u0131nda yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma bu ili\u015fkiye \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fclebilir bir \u00e7er\u00e7eve sunuyor. Eyl\u00fcl 2023-Nisan 2025 aras\u0131nda<\/p>\n\n\n\n
alt\u0131n\u0131n dolar fiyat\u0131 y\u00fczde 77 y\u00fckseldi. Bankac\u0131l\u0131k sistemindeki alt\u0131n mevduat\u0131n\u0131n toplam mevduata oran\u0131 \u00fclke<\/p>\n\n\n\n
ortalamas\u0131 olan y\u00fczde 9,4 seviyesindeki bir ilde, 2023’\u00fcn \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011finden sonra konut birim fiyat\u0131nda<\/p>\n\n\n\n
ortalama y\u00fczde 11’lik ilave art\u0131\u015f hesapland\u0131. Buradaki y\u00fczde 11, alt\u0131n\u0131n konut fiyat\u0131ndaki toplam art\u0131\u015f pay\u0131<\/p>\n\n\n\n
de\u011fil; alt\u0131n birikimi daha y\u00fcksek illerle daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck iller aras\u0131ndaki farktan t\u00fcretilen ek etkidir. Ayn\u0131 \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma<\/p>\n\n\n\n
sat\u0131\u015f adetlerinde istatistiksel olarak anlaml\u0131 bir ayr\u0131\u015fma bulmuyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Bu bulgu, alt\u0131n fiyat\u0131ndaki her hareketin konut sat\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 ayn\u0131 y\u00f6nde ve ayn\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fckte de\u011fi\u015ftirece\u011fi anlam\u0131na<\/p>\n\n\n\n
gelmez. Temmuz 2026’da sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fczde 17 d\u00fc\u015fmesi ile alt\u0131n taraf\u0131ndaki bahar sonras\u0131 sakinle\u015fme<\/p>\n\n\n\n
zaman olarak \u00f6rt\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor; ancak mevcut resm\u00ee veriler do\u011frudan bir neden-sonu\u00e7 ili\u015fkisi kurmaya yetmiyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Daha sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 okuma, alt\u0131n kazanc\u0131n\u0131n baz\u0131 hanelerin pe\u015finat g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve konuta ge\u00e7i\u015f karar\u0131n\u0131<\/p>\n\n\n\n
kolayla\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Tek bir T\u00fcrkiye konut piyasas\u0131 yok<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u00dclke ortalamas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc g\u00f6sterir, fakat karar verirken semt ve \u00fcr\u00fcn d\u00fczeyine inmek \u015fart. Yeni yap\u0131 ile eski stok,<\/p>\n\n\n\n
deprem g\u00fcvenli\u011fi g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bina ile d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm bekleyen bina, merkezi lokasyon ile \u00e7eper b\u00f6lge ayn\u0131 h\u0131zda hareket<\/p>\n\n\n\n
etmiyor. Y\u00fcksek gelirli al\u0131c\u0131n\u0131n bulundu\u011fu sahil b\u00f6lgeleri, yabanc\u0131 talebinin canl\u0131 oldu\u011fu noktalar ve k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck<\/p>\n\n\n\n
metrekareli yat\u0131r\u0131m daireleri birbirinden ayr\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k n\u00fcfus kaybeden, kiralama talebi zay\u0131f veya yap\u0131<\/p>\n\n\n\n
kalitesi sorunlu b\u00f6lgelerde nominal fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 bile enflasyonun gerisinde kalabiliyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Temmuz 2026 Konut Fiyat Endeksi \u00fclke genelinde ayl\u0131k y\u00fczde 1,5, y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fczde 25 art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6sterdi. Ayn\u0131 y\u0131ll\u0131k<\/p>\n\n\n\n
de\u011fi\u015fim \u0130stanbul’da y\u00fczde 27,7, Ankara’da y\u00fczde 26,6 ve \u0130zmir’de y\u00fczde 23,1 oldu. T\u00fcketici enflasyonu hesaba<\/p>\n\n\n\n
kat\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda T\u00fcrkiye genelindeki konut fiyat\u0131 y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fczde 5,1 geriledi. Yeni kirac\u0131 kira endeksi nominal olarak<\/p>\n\n\n\n
y\u00fczde 28,4 y\u00fckselmesine ra\u011fmen reel olarak y\u00fczde 2,6 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Ba\u015fka bir ifadeyle ilanlarda ve tapu bedellerinde<\/p>\n\n\n\n
art\u0131\u015f s\u00fcrerken sat\u0131n alma g\u00fcc\u00fc cinsinden de\u011fer kayb\u0131 devam etti.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Bu nedenle ‘fiyat d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fcyor’ ile ‘konut kazand\u0131r\u0131yor’ ayn\u0131 c\u00fcmle de\u011fil. Sat\u0131c\u0131lar y\u00fcksek enflasyon ortam\u0131nda<\/p>\n\n\n\n
nominal fiyat\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekmekte isteksiz davranabilir. D\u00fczeltme, etiket fiyat\u0131n\u0131n gerilemesi yerine fiyat\u0131n<\/p>\n\n\n\n
enflasyondan, d\u00f6vizden veya alternatif yat\u0131r\u0131m arac\u0131ndan daha yava\u015f y\u00fckselmesiyle ya\u015fanabilir. T\u00fcrkiye konut<\/p>\n\n\n\n
piyasas\u0131n\u0131n son d\u00f6nemdeki ana g\u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fcs\u00fc de buna yak\u0131n.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
26 A\u011fustos 2026 | Gayrimenkul Piyasas\u0131 Sayfa 2KARE KAP\u0130TAL F\u0130NANSAL RAPOR<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Konut fiyat\u0131n\u0131 d\u00f6rt ayr\u0131 cetvelle \u00f6l\u00e7mek<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Bir konutun performans\u0131n\u0131 yaln\u0131zca TL etiketiyle izlemek eksik sonu\u00e7 verir. \u0130lk cetvel nominal TL fiyat\u0131d\u0131r;<\/p>\n\n\n\n
sat\u0131c\u0131n\u0131n ekranda g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc rakam budur. \u0130kinci cetvel T\u00dcFE’dir ve konutun genel sat\u0131n alma g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc koruyup<\/p>\n\n\n\n
korumad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 anlat\u0131r. \u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc cetvel d\u00f6vizdir; \u00f6zellikle yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131, ithal girdiler ve d\u00f6viz geliri olan<\/p>\n\n\n\n
al\u0131c\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131r. D\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc cetvel alt\u0131nd\u0131r; T\u00fcrkiye’deki hane tasarrufunun g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir alternatifi oldu\u011fu<\/p>\n\n\n\n
i\u00e7in konutun f\u0131rsat maliyetini daha g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcr k\u0131lar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Bu d\u00f6rt \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fc ayn\u0131 anda farkl\u0131 sonu\u00e7lar verebilir. Konut TL baz\u0131nda y\u00fczde 25 y\u00fckselirken T\u00dcFE kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda de\u011fer<\/p>\n\n\n\n
kaybedebilir. Dolar baz\u0131nda yatay kal\u0131rken alt\u0131n baz\u0131nda gerileyebilir. ABD t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi Temmuz<\/p>\n\n\n\n
2010’daki 218,011 seviyesinden Temmuz 2026’da 333,918’e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; art\u0131\u015f yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 53,2. Uzun d\u00f6nemli<\/p>\n\n\n\n
dolar kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131nda yaln\u0131zca kur hesab\u0131 de\u011fil, dolar\u0131n kendi sat\u0131n alma g\u00fcc\u00fcndeki a\u015f\u0131nma da dikkate<\/p>\n\n\n\n
al\u0131nmal\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Kira getirisi de ayn\u0131 \u00e7oklu bak\u0131\u015fla ele al\u0131nabilir. \u00d6rne\u011fin 30 milyon TL de\u011ferindeki bir konutun br\u00fct kira getirisi<\/p>\n\n\n\n
y\u00fczde 6 ise y\u0131ll\u0131k br\u00fct gelir 1,8 milyon TL’dir. Aidat, bak\u0131m, bo\u015f kalma s\u00fcresi, vergi ve tahsilat riski<\/p>\n\n\n\n
d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde net getiri daha a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 iner. Mevduat veya para piyasas\u0131 fonu daha y\u00fcksek bir net getiri<\/p>\n\n\n\n
sunuyorsa, aradaki fark\u0131 konutun de\u011fer art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve kullan\u0131m faydas\u0131 kapat\u0131r. Bu \u00f6rnek bir piyasa ortalamas\u0131 de\u011fil;<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u00f6zellikle y\u00fcksek bedelli yat\u0131r\u0131m konutlar\u0131nda kullan\u0131labilecek bir f\u0131rsat maliyeti hesab\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u0130lk ev ile yat\u0131r\u0131m konutunu ay\u0131rmak<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Oturmak i\u00e7in al\u0131nan ilk evde finansal getiri tek \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fct de\u011fil. Kiran\u0131n belirsizli\u011fi, ta\u015f\u0131nma maliyeti, aile d\u00fczeni,<\/p>\n\n\n\n
okul ve i\u015f yerine yak\u0131nl\u0131k gibi ba\u015fl\u0131klar konutun sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 faydan\u0131n par\u00e7as\u0131. Hane pe\u015finat\u0131 haz\u0131rlam\u0131\u015fsa, taksit<\/p>\n\n\n\n
gelir i\u00e7inde rahat ta\u015f\u0131nabiliyorsa ve uzun s\u00fcre ayn\u0131 evde ya\u015famay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorsa k\u0131sa vadeli fiyat<\/p>\n\n\n\n
zamanlamas\u0131na fazla anlam y\u00fcklemek \u00e7o\u011fu zaman iyi sonu\u00e7 vermiyor. Burada as\u0131l kontrol, b\u00fct\u00e7enin faiz veya<\/p>\n\n\n\n
gelir \u015fokuna dayan\u0131p dayanmad\u0131\u011f\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Yat\u0131r\u0131m ama\u00e7l\u0131 al\u0131mda ise hesap daha so\u011fukkanl\u0131 yap\u0131lmal\u0131. Net kira getirisi, beklenen bo\u015fluk s\u00fcresi, bina ya\u015f\u0131,<\/p>\n\n\n\n
d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm ihtimali, likidite, tapu ve vergi maliyetleri ile alternatif TL getirisi ayn\u0131 tabloda bulunmal\u0131. \u00d6zellikle<\/p>\n\n\n\n
y\u00fcksek fiyatl\u0131 konutlarda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kira \u00e7arpan\u0131 tek ba\u015f\u0131na cazibe yaratm\u0131yor; sat\u0131\u015f\u0131n ne kadar s\u00fcrece\u011fi ve fiyat\u0131n<\/p>\n\n\n\n
hangi \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fc biriminde korunaca\u011f\u0131 da \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Kare Kapital de\u011ferlendirmesi<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki on iki ay i\u00e7in ana senaryomuz, konut fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n TL baz\u0131nda y\u00fckselmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi ancak bu<\/p>\n\n\n\n
art\u0131\u015f\u0131n \u00fclke genelinde enflasyonu rahat bi\u00e7imde a\u015famamas\u0131. 2021 benzeri bir hareket i\u00e7in yaln\u0131zca faiz indirimi<\/p>\n\n\n\n
de\u011fil; geni\u015f kredi hacmi, daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc reel gelir, eri\u015filebilir pe\u015finat ve tasarruf sahibini ayn\u0131 anda konuta<\/p>\n\n\n\n
y\u00f6nelten bir beklenti ortam\u0131 laz\u0131m. Bug\u00fcnk\u00fc veriler bu bile\u015fenlerin tamam\u0131n\u0131n birlikte olu\u015ftu\u011funu g\u00f6stermiyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc lokasyonlarda, yeni ve g\u00fcvenli yap\u0131larda, arz\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 b\u00f6lgelerde ortalamadan<\/p>\n\n\n\n
belirgin ayr\u0131\u015fmalar g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. Kentsel d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcn maliyet ve finansman nedeniyle yava\u015flamas\u0131 da orta<\/p>\n\n\n\n
vadede iyi nitelikli stokun primini koruyabilir. Piyasa hakk\u0131nda ‘sert y\u00fckseli\u015f’ veya ‘genel \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f’ gibi tek<\/p>\n\n\n\n
c\u00fcmlelik yorumlar yerine, para nereden gelecek, hangi al\u0131c\u0131 grubu \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kacak ve i\u015flem hangi fiyat \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcs\u00fcnde<\/p>\n\n\n\n
kazan\u00e7 say\u0131lacak sorular\u0131n\u0131 sormak daha a\u00e7\u0131klay\u0131c\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Konut alacak haneler i\u00e7in pe\u015finat oran\u0131, gelir-taksit dengesi ve en az alt\u0131 ayl\u0131k nakit tampon; yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 i\u00e7in net<\/p>\n\n\n\n
kira getirisi ve alternatif getiri fark\u0131; geli\u015ftirici i\u00e7in sat\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131, arsa pay\u0131 ve finansman vadesi \u00f6ncelikli izleme<\/p>\n\n\n\n
alanlar\u0131. Nominal fiyat\u0131n korunmas\u0131 tek ba\u015f\u0131na sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 piyasa anlam\u0131na gelmiyor. Gelir ve finansman eri\u015fimi<\/p>\n\n\n\n
toparlanmad\u0131k\u00e7a piyasa, fiyat\u0131n\u0131 TL olarak art\u0131r\u0131rken reel anlamda zamana yay\u0131lan bir d\u00fczeltme ya\u015famaya<\/p>\n\n\n\n
devam edebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Kaynaklar<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u2022 KGF \u2013 2017 Hazine destekli kefalet \u00e7er\u00e7evesi \u2022 TCMB \u2013 13.09.2018 faiz karar\u0131 \u2022 AA \u2013 2020 kamu bankalar\u0131 konut finansman\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 \u2022 T\u00dc\u0130K \u2013 2025 konut sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 \u2022 T\u00dc\u0130K \u2013 Temmuz 2026 konut ve i\u015f yeri sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 \u2022 TCMB \u2013 Temmuz 2026 Konut Fiyat Endeksi<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u2022 TCMB \u2013 Alt\u0131n fiyat\u0131 kaynakl\u0131 servet etkisi<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u2022 TCMB \u2013 Konut kredilerinin \u00fclke kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u2022 ABD \u00c7al\u0131\u015fma \u0130statistikleri B\u00fcrosu \u2013 Temmuz 2010 T\u00dcFE<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u2022 ABD \u00c7al\u0131\u015fma \u0130statistikleri B\u00fcrosu \u2013 Temmuz 2026 T\u00dcFE<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u2022 T\u00dc\u0130K \u2013 Haziran 2026 in\u015faat maliyet endeksi<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Bu rapor genel bilgilendirme amac\u0131yla haz\u0131rlanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r; yat\u0131r\u0131m tavsiyesi de\u011fildir. Veriler, yay\u0131n tarihi itibar\u0131yla eri\u015filen kaynaklara dayan\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
26 A\u011fustos 2026 | Gayrimenkul Piyasas\u0131 Sayfa 3<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Gelir ve Servet Etkisi Nominal fiyat dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ile al\u0131m g\u00fcc\u00fcndeki a\u015f\u0131nmay\u0131 ayn\u0131 tabloda okumak KARE KAP\u0130TAL F\u0130NANSAL RAPOR \u00d6ZET T\u00fcrkiye’de konut fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 yaln\u0131zca faiz \u00fczerinden a\u00e7\u0131klamak, piyasan\u0131n bug\u00fcnk\u00fc yap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 eksik b\u0131rak\u0131yor. 2021-2022 d\u00f6nemindeki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc y\u00fckseli\u015f; ucuz kredinin yan\u0131nda h\u0131zl\u0131 kredi geni\u015flemesi, y\u00fcksek enflasyon, \u00fccret art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ve tasarruflar\u0131n reel varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelmesiyle olu\u015fmu\u015ftu. Bug\u00fcn ayn\u0131 bile\u015fenler bir […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"template":"","class_list":["post-212","kk_study","type-kk_study","status-publish","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/karekapital.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/kk_study\/212","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/karekapital.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/kk_study"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/karekapital.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/kk_study"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/karekapital.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/kk_study\/212\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":215,"href":"https:\/\/karekapital.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/kk_study\/212\/revisions\/215"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/karekapital.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=212"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}